In fact, he is clearly impresse. Yeah, you see. Like Charlie Munger once said: “I’ve long believed that a certain system - which almost any intelligent person can learn - works way better than the systems most people use [to understand the world]. And it gets worse â like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: âWork is the refuge of people who have nothing better to doâ, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probably too stupid to know (or deserve) any better. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. The 21 year old, who just moved out from home, and spends a lot of her time deliberating what to wear and eat, the 59 year old writer, whoâs not sure whether the next page is even worth writing, and anyone who has someone with a bad illness in their family. These books explained it well, about the role of chance/probability and randomness, in our lives. Nietzsche was certainly on to something; itâs hard to avoid being offended by your betters. The author's message is an incessant din of, 'I'm smart. The result is a book on how randomness guides our lives much more than we want to belive. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. All in all, I am really puzzled by the popularity of this book, and I would strongly recommend against bothering with this one. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. Ranked #3 in Business Statistics, Ranked #4 in Macroeconomics — see more rankings. Some people get elated when the find some kind of pattern in randomness, when there is none. Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize. He discusses Antifragility throughout history, up to our current economic situation, and even in our personal situations. Let us know whatâs wrong with this preview of, Published “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. '", ⦠Iâve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. Really about how much randomness there is in our world. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little. About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Skin In the Game, Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a (so far) 5-volume Amazon and B&N and is memorable. That podcast changed my life External-identifier urn:asin:0812975219 urn:oclc Introduction Fooled by Randomness is the sort of book that I normally wouldnât read. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you shouldn't be doing: making sense of random noise. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. But, from reading their reports, I think that it paid off. The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Cliches exist for a reason, but 196 pages later I feel the point has been well made. They complain about the tone. Amazoné éååãªãFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)ãé常é éç¡æãæ´ã«Amazonãªããã¤ã³ãéå æ¬ãå¤æ°ãTaleb, Nassim Nicholasä½åã»ãããæ¥ã便対象ååã¯å½æ¥ãå±ãã If you're really interested in randomness, I would recommend The Drunkard's Walk. Again, I'm astounded by the quality of Taleb's writing. Iâve just checked and most of the other reviews of this book do pretty much what I thought they would do. I am just giving you insights on what you will read from this book. The attitude and tone he takes has a purpose, to deliver a message in three parts: we are not good at dealing with uncertainty, we don't think about uncertainty right because we tend to only see what actually happened instead of considering all the possibilities, and the way to get past this is to consider the process and be assured that it would have handled bad news well. He continues down this train of thought until he reaches the conclusion that the ultimate success and failure of some people can primarily be explained by luck. (Source), Ola Olusoga Like Charlie Munger once said: “I’ve long believed that a certain system - which almost any intelligent person can learn - works way better than the systems most people use [to understand the world]. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. These books explained it well, about the role of chance/probability and randomness, in our lives. I've resisted reading Taleb for reasons he might approve of. I expected to get an entertaining and informative investment professional's take on how our irrational tendencies keep us from applying basic probabilities that would help us make better decisions. I assigned this to a class, with a warning that Taleb can be an insufferable, arrogant, jerk; but he was not going to be the last one they deal with so they have to get past that. On Goodreads, it has a rating of 4.07 from 1,968 reviews. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. I found First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. They're stupid'. I've finally read this book because a friend whose insights I give some weight to respects Taleb's ideas. Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. And thus people get fooled by randomness and create theories of success. That podcast changed my life Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan -has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is written by a person who is both a thinker and a doer, a combination that should be strived for by everyone. Start by marking âFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Marketsâ as Want to Read: Error rating book. Renowned statistician George Box once said, âAll models are wrong, but some are useful.â The author of, You can't learn anything from this book; it's just a rant. He claims that with the number of investors, it was a statistical certainty that one would obtain Buffettâs success. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. The authorâs most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. Ironic for a man who criticises the normative dimensions of economics, Taleb certainly pushes a strong view of the world. (Source), Art De Vany I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. This is one of the best books I have ever read. The concepts in this book are invaluable for those developing critical thinking skills. (Source). I have textbooks that I can assign that teaches methods of measuring uncertainty, Fooled by Randomness helped my students learn to think about risk, and that makes it a success in their (and mine) eyes. Success of some people is nothing but pure luck. One sentence review: Expect the unexpected. This is the best book I have read all year, closely followed by his other book, The Black Swan. Taleb set the bar with this book, came close with Black Swan, but seemed to lose mojo with his more recent works; I need to move on. I donât remember who suggested reading this unusual âtrading bookâ to me but whoever that was, I am sincerely thankful to that person. This guy is never going to win an award for modesty and he probably thinks you are stupid and have wasted your life. He claims that with the number of i. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. May 2002 Fooled by randomness - The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life If you watch a steam engine, you may not know how it works but you can soon get a fairly good idea of its behaviour, and you can predict its future behaviour accurately. And, with that system, things gradually fit together in a way that enhances cognition. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say heâs an intellectual with a trading streak. Probably not. I love the theses that he has in the book, but jesus christ, this is horribly written. I'm not certain if it was this book I read or, [ at least at first, after a few repetitions it starts to get a bit stale, Using his trademark aphoristic bent, Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: âArrogance in persons of merit affronts us more than arrogance in those without merit: merit itself is an affrontâ. At times the logic and flow is so jumpy and flawed that I thought there was something wrong with my copy. Fooled by Randomness is ranked in the following categories: If you like Fooled by Randomness, check out these similar top-rated books: And throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. I used [this book] is a class I taught on the economics of uncertainty. (Source), Darvin Kurniawan "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and basically the others in the series like "Fooled by Randomness" and "Antifragile") are also my favourites. "The book was selected by Fortune as one of the 75 'Smartest Books of All Time. He discusses Antifragility throughout history, up to our current economic situation, and even in our personal situations. Just a moment while we sign you in to your Goodreads account. In fact, he is clearly impressed by wealth, but counteracts it by stressing how little he works, how much time he devotes to intellectual pursuits and how much smarter he is than the typical wealthy person. James Altucher Founder/StockPickr And throw in âThe Black Swanâ and âFooled by Randomnessâ.And throw in âThe Black Swanâ and âFooled by Randomnessâ. The book "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2001. This book is a lot of painful reading for little reward, as there was nothing truly remarkable or revelatory about Taleb's insights. thought that the book was supposed to be about, but you have to make it through 130 pages of arrogance and badly composed narrative. One of my business school professors raved about this book. Refresh and try again. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. I was happy to read the section on Tversky and Kahneman, but I find their work infinitely more interesting and readable than his summary, and you are spared the normative commentary. Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read. His theory is both scientific and poetic, his insights are always useful and reflect what I often experience in my life...the one thing that really impressed me in this book, however, was his ability to tell a great story. Renowned statistician George Box once said, All models are wrong, but some are useful. Having run into Nassim Taleb's later work "The Black Swan", last year (see review), I choose the new edition of his earlier contribution, "Fooled by Randomness" as one summer 2012's special reads. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. "Expect the unexpected" -- an aphorism that almost completely summarises the book. The author says right at the beginning in his 20+ page preface that the book is intentionally left unstructured so that it may resemble the flow of his thoughts as and when they popped up. Is our success or failure really a reflection of our own abilities? A terrific book to get us start thinking about probabilities in life. With recommendations from Malcolm Gladwell, and Ev Williams. It has everything in a book that I yearn for....interesting ideas...some of which I don't grasp because hey are too clever for me...a smug narrator who seemingly knows more than everyone else...and a well-written and pleasing style. The author of Fooled by Randomness is all over the first part of this statement, but apparently doesnt consider it part of his job as an iconoclast to say anything about the second. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. Most of what can be said of this book has already been said by other reviewers on GoodReads, so I will just briefly recap here: he is incredibly unlikeable, and infuses the book with anecdote and a general disdain for most of humanity, while exemplifying many of the characteristics he rails against. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes.Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about I am suspicious of new gurus and of intellectual fads, especially when the word 'market' is factored in. Iâve come to realize that some people find Nassim Talebâs arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. Even if The Millionaireâs methodology didnât meet statistical rigor and suffered from selection bias, the behavior of the various subjects interviewed matched the pattern of Talebâs hypothetical Manhattan dentist who is probabilistically richer than any lottery winner. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Fooled by Randomness â Book Review The past decade has witnessed the release of many books about risk management and assessment, but none have managed to illustrate the role that random events play in life and markets as well as Nissim Nicholas Talebâs latest work. Because of hindsight bias and survivorship bias, in particular, we tend to forget the many who fail, remember the few who succeed, and then create reasons and patterns for their success even though it was largely random. Probabilities are misconstrued as certainties. Iâve come to realize that some people find Nassim Talebâs arrogance quite repugnant, but, personally, I find it rather charming. Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is about, âThe Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.â So hereâs what youâre in for: With Fooled by Randomness you get an explicit look at luck; and specifically, how we perceive it in our personal and professional lives. In multiple ways. We've comprehensively compiled reviews of Fooled by Randomness from the world's leading experts. He merely invents parables to expound on his points. It's hard to overstate how rarely a book changes your ideas about how the world works once, let alone multiple times, and that Taleb has managed to The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb | 4.18 | 48,585 ratings and reviews. But, from reading their reports, I think that it paid off. It explained things that I sort of felt existed but unable to articulate. See 1 question about Fooled by Randomnessâ¦, Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Incorrect Page Count: ISBN13: 9781400067930, Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson Shares His Reading Recommendations. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. That's something I had forgotten about. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette - and calling it by some alternative âlow riskâ game.”. Much of the anecdote in the book could have been removed to make way for the real substance of the book. It was first published in 2001. Part II would have been pretty good if I hadn't read a lot of other books on the topics, and for those who are interested in economic markets, I think this would interest you if you can move past the constant interjections of Taleb's personal philosophy. And that I believe is the problem. The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. Just as multiple factors shape every system, multiple mental models from a variety of disciplines are necessary to understand that system". I suspect that the same people who find Talebâs arrogance off-putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition. I don't really disagree with his criticisms of MBAs, economists, traders, journalists, etc., but I also don't think anything he says is especially revealing of insightful for most of us who aren't involved in the trading world. I suspect that the same people who find Talebâs arrogance off-putting are the people who wish they possessed a shred of his erudition. Who should I read? Updated editions were released a few years later. Malcolm Gladwell Writer & JournalistRecommends this book, Ev Williams Co-Founder/Twitter, CEO/MediumRecommends this book, James Altucher Founder/StockPickrAnd throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. Mild success can be explainable by skills and hard work, but wild success is usually attributable to variance and luck. His main idea is that probability is not mere computation of the odds - it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and developing methods for dealing with our ignorance. everyone. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. He merely invents parables to expound on his points. I assigned this to a class, with a warning that Taleb can be an insufferable, arrogant, jerk; but he was not going to be the last one they deal with so they have to get past that. Fooled by Randomness â Review I love Talebâs irreverent and biting style. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years as a risk taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a flaneur and researcher in philosophical, mathematical and (mostly) practical problems with probability. Welcome back. Like When Breath Becomes Air, itâs about a subject that Iâm not particularly interested in (statistics and how they play out in daily life) and, like The Age of Federalism or The Bell Curve, it is quite dense. Access-restricted-item true Addeddate 2014-06-05 17:38:38.475324 Bookplateleaf 0008 Boxid IA1611107 Camera Canon EOS 5D Mark II City New York Edition 2nd ed., updated. What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. When Taleb does delve into intriguing concepts, I was frustrated with the fact that he explained them poorly and incompletely, and quickly moved on to another topic. â¨, “Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.”, “Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. It remains a fascinating book nonetheless. You can read this book to start building a "latticework of mental models in your head". by Random House Trade Paperbacks, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. The author continually pontificates that random events happen in life. The authorâs most famous exclamation is that the 40 years of investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, "may be by chance." Nassim Nicholas Talebâveteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan âhas written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. - This is precisely the belief of Nassim Taleb who goes on and on and on and on to prove it throughout the book. They complain about the tone. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. But he neither uses actual events or statistics. Review of and thoughs about âFooled by Randomnessâ (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Emil O. W. Kirkegaard 6. Fooled by Randomness revolutionized how I view the world. I was not disappointed. Nassim Taleb's book is highly idiosyncratic and personal, which is both what lends it a lot of its interest and what occasionally makes it irritating. Nietzsche was certainly on to something; itâs hard to av. I feel like I should read the remaining four(at least for now) again, and I'd love to. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. Once I read it I could never look at the world the same again, nor could I take my old assumptions for granted. Recommended Summary: The Swedish Investor â Fooled By Randomness (By Nassim Taleb) Author: Nassim Taleb is the original, idiosyncratic mind behind Fooled by Randomness , The Black Swan , and Antifragile , a bestselling series of books on the nature of complexity, randomness, and a world where rare events dominate the landscape. He seems to go around in circles repeating his ideas and thoughts, coming back to the same points, pulling in unrelated anecdotes while already inside one, leaving thoughts hanging without any form of closure, and generally ensuring you end up doing exactly what he says you s. The author says right at the beginning in his 20+ page preface that the book is intentionally left unstructured so that it may resemble the flow of his thoughts as and when they popped up. A few insights from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Taleb has quickly become one of my favorite writers, possibly my favorite thinker. Who would I recommend the Fooled By Randomness summary to? Personally, my eyes glaze over when I read about trading, and I much prefer books like The Drunkard's Walk, which illustrates many of the same (but also many more) concepts. (Source), Anant Jain The five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. And it gets worse â like that quote from Oscar Wilde that has tormented me for years: âWork is the refuge of people who have nothing better to doâ, this guy reckons that if you work for more than an hour or so per day you are probab. But, it does get kind of tiresome to be told for the 5th or 10th time how unimpressed by wealth he is. Taleb is a successful trader who has read poetry, history, psychology and many other subjects quite extensively. This is the first book of INCERTO, the most polite, the simplest, and the best to start. This is a book by a trader with an intellectual streak -- although he might say heâs an intellectual with a trading streak. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. His insights will not be news to anyone who has read even a little bit about statistics, decision making under uncertainty, and behavioural economics. And because of that effectiveness (many of my students stated they never read anything book length voluntarily), the book keeps the readers attention (if the tone does not drive them away!) Fooled by Randomness is one of that select group of books that changes your mind entirely. Using his trademark aphoristic bent, Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: âArrogance in persons of merit affronts us more than arrogance in those without merit: merit itself is an affrontâ. A nice thesis (humans are unable to correctly assess risk and probability and therefore fall into all kinds of traps) wrapped in pompous and befuddled writing. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Overall, he does not seem like a likeable man, and in fact is probably proud of that fact. Weâd love your help. With the meltdown in the world financial system I felt drawn to reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness written before the meltdown but in a way predicting it. Investment success experienced by Warren Buffett, `` may be by chance. the authorâs most famous exclamation is the... Drunkard 's Walk will read from this book to start building a `` latticework of mental models from variety! 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